Homepage Neugebauer Family https://www.neugebauer.name/en ... about all and nothing ... Sun, 22 Apr 2018 18:53:48 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.9.8 Factfulness: Ten Reasons We’re Wrong About the World – and Why Things Are Better Than You Think – Hans Rosling https://www.neugebauer.name/en/2018/04/factfulness-ten-reasons-were-wrong-about-the-world-and-why-things-are-better-than-you-think-hans-rosling/ Sun, 15 Apr 2018 20:24:18 +0000 http://www.neugebauer.name/?p=4908 Continue reading Factfulness: Ten Reasons We’re Wrong About the World – and Why Things Are Better Than You Think – Hans Rosling ]]> On piqd I found an interesting article on faz.de, the title “Die Welt wird immer besser: 32 gute Nachrichten” (in German). Maybe I’m an optimist, although I don’t really think so, just realist, but I really liked this article.

It appears to me that some media really live from “bad news”, like bad-news are good-news. Sometimes it feels like you really have to search for good news articles. For me, those 32 good news, were actually known, but still I hardly remember them and when reading daily news, the optimism is minimal.

In essence, that articles is a short-summary from the book “Factfulness” by Hans Rosling, who unfortunately died in February 2017. His last book was published post mortem recently in April 2018.

It appears to me that this book is well worth reading… chapter after chapter, after digesting the daily news and reset opinion.

If you can’t read that article on faz.net (as its in German) or if the article or the book are too long, I would recommend to watch this TED-Talk which takes only about 19 minutes, during which Hans Rosling summarizes a few of the facts in a very interesting way.

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The Seven Deadly Sins of Predicting the Future of AI https://www.neugebauer.name/en/2018/04/the-seven-deadly-sins-of-predicting-the-future-of-ai/ Sun, 08 Apr 2018 08:44:08 +0000 http://www.neugebauer.name/?p=4893 Continue reading The Seven Deadly Sins of Predicting the Future of AI ]]> This week, I read an article on the web-site of the German magazine Technology Review. I really liked the article because it summarizes nicely several things that I also believe. But it is not just a sceptical article, but written by an expert from the field with insight and thoughtful opinion and not just someone who publishes a rant on a hype topic.

Essay: Die sieben Todsünden der KI-Vorhersagen – Heise-Verlag / Technology Review (Germany)

Original Article: The Seven Deadly Sins of Predicting the Future of AI – by Rodney Brooks

A couple of personal thoughts on the topic: Intelligence in itself isn’t actually understood yet. This starts with the discussion around animals, and which ones are intelligent, or not, or which behaviour may be sign of intelligence or is rather a learned reaction to a specific cause or trigger.

Also Arthur C. Clarke wrote already many years back: “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic”. What I mean here is that a lot of recent technology advancements in AI are certainly impressing, but in the end just “technology”. Assigning these things the label “intelligence” is just an opinion, which I personally would not agree to.

One specific aspect of the Essay is “exponentialism”. We human beings struggle to really get this aspect. When the chess computers were invented and finally even beat the world champion, the victory of AI was predicted very soon. What an over-estimation. But now again with AlphaGO, the same thing happens. I do certainly understand the advancement of this technology, but this machine can just play GO. Yes, it is “clever” enough to learn other board games, but just that. If we humans play a game and someone decides to slightly change a rule (like the many poker variants), we humans can easily adjust. The AlphaGO has to relearn and adapt in a very lengthy process. Human intelligence is exponentially above those technologies.

This makes it so hard for AI to survive in the real world… we humans don’t just follow rules, instead we are very creative in changing, adapting or breaking them all the time. Like in traffic… if you drive just 5km to work, you need to follow some, let’s say, 100 rules, easily. But if you watch very closely you will see that we also constantly break many of these rules. And humans can easily adjust to that behaviour, and still almost nothing happens. OK, almost. I am very sceptical if we will really see self-driving cars around in 5 years… and if, then only in controlled areas, e.g. highways.

But this specific example brings us to another aspect… the under-estimation, or more importantly, the expectations towards technology. The self-driving cars are expected to drive flawlessly. Guys, that will never happen. Of course the will be accidents caused by such cars. But then again: we humans are overall terrible drivers… in Germany 3.177 people died in 2017 in car accidents, no self-driving car around yet. Although this sounds just like inhuman statistics, the point will be if self-driving cars will cause less accidents than humans. And I guess this is a likely possibility… in several years … t.b.d.

In summary: I do certainly understand the advances in AI recently with automated machine learning etc., and I am fascinated by some of these technologies. But I’m far from a hype-state, thinking that humans will be 50% or even 80% “obsolete” in many areas like some people state. Maybe such a thing may happen in a distant future, but I would not bet on it. And I don’t believe this will be in the next 10 years, and likely not during my lifetime.

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Mallorca 2018 https://www.neugebauer.name/en/2018/03/mallorca-2018/ Sat, 24 Mar 2018 16:47:16 +0000 http://www.neugebauer.name/?p=4897 Continue reading Mallorca 2018 ]]>
Blühender Mandelbaum

This year the training camp was as early as never before (for me). Due to the Easter vacation in Germany and other appointments of my friends, we already went in the beginning of March from Fr. 2nd to Sun 18th of March. A good 2 weeks during which I did 16 tours. Almond-cake is one of my favourites on Mallorca, but so far we could only eat it. This time we were early enough to see almond blossom, which is usually during February, until early March.

The weather was really nice. It was clear that so early we would not get real summer temperatures. But we reached 15°C minimum during the days and on the warmest day even about 20°C (a little less with about 10-14°C starting in the morning). So we had to wear long shirts or at least leg and arm warmers and always a wind-proof jacket with us. We didn’t have a rain day, there were two or three days with rain during night or early morning, but it went away so that we could start around mid-day latest.

The tours were mean to train the base fitness. So we did relatively slower tours, which was also good for me. Although I had done a number of tours on my gravel bike over winter, some home-training and several rides on the track in Öschelbronn, all those trips were short. In Mallorca we did almost always more than 4 hours. This year I didn’t make that mistake from last year to not doing a pause day. I paused on 2 days with “active regeneration”, i.e. going only 30km very, very slowly. That paid off.

Although we did not do anything really extreme, we did one quite long and flat tour to Cala Figuera (picture below), where I haven’t been in the last 2 years… that’s a very nice place to go to. And of course the obligatory tours to Randa and Orient.

Cala Figuera

Towards end of second week, we did two “top tours” in the mountains. The first was via Caimari to the Col dels Reis down towards Sa Calobra runter (but finally not to Calobra but the neighbour gay Cala Tuent) … and then back via monastery Lluc and Pollenca – 130km and aprox. 2300Hm. Then one shorter day to recover (aprox. 80km), and then another big one: via Bunyola to Soller and then over the Puig Mayor and back again via monastery Lluc and Pollenca – 142,5km and aprox. 2000Hm.

Statistics:

  • ~1550km, with 16 individual tours (the two breaks included)
  • About 18.000 m of accumulated altitude (GPS measured, in reality might be some 10% less)
  • Total riding time (excl. breaks): about 63 hours
  • Total average speed across all tours: 23,8 km/h

This year I didn’t create manual tour entries on GSPies. As I have a GPS watch since last year, I recorded all tours and uploaded to Strava… yes, modern technology.

The first big tour: Cala Tuent (Calobra) on Strava.
The second big tour via Puig Mayor on Strava.

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Hallelujah https://www.neugebauer.name/en/2018/01/hallelujah/ Wed, 31 Jan 2018 19:12:02 +0000 http://www.neugebauer.name/?p=4533 Hallelujah …

Doesn’t matter if real or fake … but cool… 🙂

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Looking forward to 2018… https://www.neugebauer.name/en/2017/12/looking-forward-to-2018/ Tue, 26 Dec 2017 19:15:24 +0000 http://www.neugebauer.name/?p=4515 Continue reading Looking forward to 2018… ]]> The calendar year 2018 is soon over, and I will reach just over 10.000km on the bike this year. So far, so good 🙂

A few days ago was winter solstice and in a  German road-bike forum someone published an article about interesting events taking place at summer solstice in June. Something to look forward to, and possibly plan for.

Unfortunately such large events are quite in fashion nowadays and often too many people there, prices up and you have to book tickets long time in advance. But to join such an event may be something nice for a change? Well, we’ll see what time will bring and at least I’d like to manage riding another 10.000km also in 2018  😉

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David Katz … photographer and … https://www.neugebauer.name/en/2017/11/david-katz-photographer-and/ Wed, 01 Nov 2017 19:44:38 +0000 http://www.neugebauer.name/?p=4494 … and a very special person. A very special and inspiring story.

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Why Germans Work Fewer Hours But Product More https://www.neugebauer.name/en/2017/10/why-germans-work-fewer-hours-but-product-more/ Tue, 31 Oct 2017 08:54:53 +0000 http://www.neugebauer.name/?p=4479 Continue reading Why Germans Work Fewer Hours But Product More ]]> If you work, like me, in a large international company and work with colleagues from many other countries, you are regularly confronted with the prejudice that Germans work so few hours and have so many holidays/vacation days.

Well, some of it is simply wrong (like having many public holidays, but thats a separate article), and then … could it be that this is part of why we are so productive? Because we really work, when we work?

Although this article is already from 2014, I just stumbled across it a few days ago when browsing some of the blogs that I follow:

Why Germans Work Fewer Hours But Produce More: A Study In Culture

Reading this takes you about 10 minutes or so … interestingly, the comments section below takes more than 90% of the web-page… some interesting stuff there also and the usual debate about “what is wrong” and “why its right”… didn’t read too much of it…

As I am German, I am by nature sceptical and do not have a tendency to be overly proud of myself or country. But I do think that some of that may be true… isn’t it?

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Track Bike https://www.neugebauer.name/en/2017/10/track-bike/ Sun, 22 Oct 2017 08:18:28 +0000 http://www.neugebauer.name/?p=4484 Continue reading Track Bike ]]> A few weeks ago I was again on the Track in Öschelbronn, after several months, because it rained that Sunday. As always, I rented a bike there… afterwards I resisted the urge to buy such a bike. You can rent it for only 8€, you would have to ride very, very often for that to make commercial sense.

On the other side, you have to get the bike from the Garage each time, mount the pedals, adjust the saddle height and also the saddle doesn’t really fit to your own “back side”. All not really very good reasons to spend money, for a few training rides of 2 hours each, per year.

After 2 years and 3 days, my resistance was broken. My Cinelli Tipo Pista 🙂

Cinelli Tipo Pista, Bahnstadion in Öschelbronn
Cinelli Tipo Pista, Bahnstadion in Öschelbronn
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I just cycle https://www.neugebauer.name/en/2017/10/i-just-cycle/ Sat, 07 Oct 2017 18:12:28 +0000 http://www.neugebauer.name/?p=4456 No more words, I just cycle…

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Rad-Saison 2017 finished https://www.neugebauer.name/en/2017/09/rad-saison-2017-finished/ Sat, 30 Sep 2017 16:20:24 +0000 http://www.neugebauer.name/?p=4471 Continue reading Rad-Saison 2017 finished ]]> My biking season starts on October 1st and lasts until September 30th, hence today’s Friday is the last day of the season, this coming weekend is part of the new season 2018.

It’s time for a summary of this past season…

The Winter-Saison 2017 started with a long break, from beginning of December until end of January. I don’t remember why I did almost no cycling in the first two weeks of December, but then I left for a 5 week vacation in Patagonia, South America. When I came back in January, it snowed for the first time and I only did a few very short trips, as long as it wasn’t too icy, so until almost mid February.

But then it continued obviously quite well, I can see 420km in February in the statistic. The temperature was not very cold, and at the same time there was a lot of wood harvesting going on so that the tracks in the forest were dirty up to level of destroyed. So I used my All-Road bike mostly on paved side ways and smaller roads and only short pieces of dirt-tracks. I have a second pair of wheels for my All-Road with 28mm road-tyres, so I can change quickly. So basically end of February already the road-bike season had started.

Although the cycling form had gone down a bit, due to the long break, I could train quite well … for Mallorca. As the Easter weekend was very late, we went first time already before Easter, end of March. It was a bit cooler, but quite OK for cycling. We had almost no daytime rain, only in the nights, so that we didn’t “have to” do any breaks.

Well, after so many years, should know better … but that actually meant that I did indeed cycle all 15 days, without a real break. The first planned “recovery day” first had 60 slow kilometers to Petra and back… but as there was the Road-Bike Festival, Peter and I went there, and lent two bikes for a test-ride… so the day ended with 95km finally. Not a real break I’d say. The second break-day then was indeed only 60km Petra and back. When I came home I realized what I had done. The first weekend later, 6 days of doing nothing… my legs still felt like pudding, no power, just tired. It took almost 2 weeks to recover from Mallorca … but the training was still effective, the good form was back afterwards.

The sprint time this year passed without catching a cold, a bit unusual for me, I get it every year, normally. But … being too happy about it… it happened finally in July. I did catch quite a bad cold, which caused a set-back. One week of complete break, and two more weekends going just slowly and short. Then we did one somewhat longer tour into the black forest… and that proved a point: not being fit enough to do the long marathon in Magstadt (the one with 250km and 4000m altitude), but we would do the shorter marathon with 200km and 3000m altitude. Good choice, as this tour was then quite fun!

For the seasons ending, I went for a week into the Allgäu, Nesselwang, as almost every year, this year a bit late, early September. It was already a bit cool, but good enough for 4 really, really nice, but quite touch tours. I really like it there (the blog articles might get translated later, not done yet).

Statistics:

  • Road-bike:
    • 8.284,6 km total, 93 counted tours, avg. 89,1km per tour;
      a few less than last year, but 2016 was the record year
    • Total of 320 hours of cycling time; 26,19km/h overall average speed
    • 83.933 m altitude
    • 58 Tours < 100km (Ø 66,2 km; with 578m alt, 26,63 km/h)
    • 35 Tours > 100km (Ø 127,0 km; with 1441m alt, 25,47 km/h)
  • Mountainbike / All-Road:
    • 21 Tours, mostly All-Road
    • 1.173km total
    • 12.810m altitude
    • approx. 56h cycling time
    • 21,7 km/h average speed overall
  • Tacx Trainer
    • 10 Trainings
    • 333 km
    • 12h cycling time
  • Looking at the long vacation break, that’s still a super year
    • 8.285 km Road-bike
    • 9.458 km “outside” with Road-Bike and All-Road
    • 9.791 km total including indoors on Tacx

Now it’s autumn already. The weather was quite mixed this year, changing almost daily, unfortunately this continues into fall right now. I still hope for a “golden October” … let’s see. In any case, everything from now on counts to season 2018.

Link to my biking page

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